Export Powerhouse: Australia’s $333 billion opportunity

Australia has a strong track record of achieving exponential industrial growth when a clear political direction is set and policy settings are aligned to unlock growth.

This chart provides the historical growth of iron ore and LNG exports over the last 25 years compared to our Go for Gold scenario for green steel, hydrogen, aluminum and critical minerals. The growth trajectory is well within historical performance and, in fact, is conservative for the majority of the export goods.

Beyond Zero Emissions analysis shows that by pursuing an ambitious Go for Gold scenario, Australia can secure a significant share of the global market for growth commodities.

These new green export industries will meet surging demand for zero-carbon products, such as green steel, renewable hydrogen and ammonia, green aluminium and critical minerals that will dominate global economic growth this century.

Australia’s export profile is highly exposed to demand collapse as the world rapidly pivots to a zero-emissions future. Current climate targets of Australia's key trading partners will wipe $128 billion a year off of Australia's exports unless we invest in alternatives.

Currently, 39% of Australia’s total commodity exports are fossil fuels. Yet, Australia’s top five export markets (China, Japan, South Korea, US and the EU) have all set net zero targets and are implementing ambitious policy settings that will drive down demand faster.

If Australia takes a more cautious, slower industrial development strategy across the four classes of zero-emissions goods, growth will be drastically reduced. In the Slow Starter scenario we may still see export revenue from zero-emissions products increase steadily, from $21 billion in 2020 to $33 billion in 2030 and $123 billion by 2050, but growth is effectively a third of the rate of the Go for Gold scenario.