Export Powerhouse: Australia’s $333 billion opportunity

Green exports could grow to almost triple the value of existing fossil fuel exports by 2050

September 2021

As the world decarbonises, our $128 billion fossil fuel industry is at risk

Australia’s fossil fuel export profile is highly exposed to demand collapse as the world rapidly pivots to a zero-emissions future. Current climate targets of Australia's key trading partners will wipe $128 billion a year off Australia's exports unless we invest in alternatives. The good news is, Australia is well positioned to pivot our export strategy and capitalise on green export market trends.

Australia can be a global leader in the production and export of green commodities

Beyond Zero Emissions research shows that Australia can grow its revenue from new green exports to $333 billion by 2050. We can meet the surging demand for zero-carbon products including green steel, renewable hydrogen and ammonia, green aluminium and critical minerals. But, we have to move quickly.

Australia can be a global leader in the production and export of green commodities

Beyond Zero Emissions research shows that Australia can grow its revenue from new green exports to $333 billion by 2050. We can meet the surging demand for zero-carbon products including green steel, renewable hydrogen and ammonia, green aluminium and critical minerals. But, we have to move quickly.

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We can seize Australia's opportunity with four priority actions:

Set a national clean commodity export target of $100 billion by 2035 to provide a strong investment signal

Set green export investment as a priority for DFAT, Austrade and Export Finance Australia

Establish a Supergrid Deployment Authority with a $20 billion lending facility to strengthen the grid and provide transmission capacity industry needs

Launch a national Renewable Energy Industrial Precinct activation plan to establish 14 precincts in the next five years

Let's Go for Gold, Australia

Australia has the unique opportunity to capitalise on our engineering skills to deliver global scale new resource projects. In Exports Powerhouse, we explore three possible futures for Australian exports. The most ambitious scenario is Go for Gold.

Go for Gold is a strong commitment to a zero-emissions export vision, fast tracking public and private investment into infrastructure, facilities/plants, technologies and up-skilling. Here, we could grow Australia's revenue from new green exports to $333 billion by 2050.

Industry leaders support this research

Green exports: comparable to historic resource booms

Australia has a strong track record of achieving exponential industrial growth when a clear political direction is set and policy settings are aligned to unlock growth.

This chart provides the historical growth of iron ore and LNG exports over the last 25 years compared to our Go for Gold scenario for green steel, hydrogen, aluminum and critical minerals. The growth trajectory is well within historical performance and, in fact, is conservative for the majority of the export goods.

Chart

Revenue since first year of export

Green exports: comparable to historic resource booms

Australia has a strong track record of achieving exponential industrial growth when a clear political direction is set and policy settings are aligned to unlock growth.

This chart provides the historical growth of iron ore and LNG exports over the last 25 years compared to our Go for Gold scenario for green steel, hydrogen, aluminum and critical minerals. The growth trajectory is well within historical performance and, in fact, is conservative for the majority of the export goods.

Chart

Revenue since first year of export

Green exports: comparable to historic resource booms

Revenue since first year of export

Australia has a strong track record of achieving exponential industrial growth when a clear political direction is set and policy settings are aligned to unlock growth.

This chart provides the historical growth of iron ore and LNG exports over the last 25 years compared to our Go for Gold scenario for green steel, hydrogen, aluminum and critical minerals. The growth trajectory is well within historical performance and, in fact, is conservative for the majority of the export goods.

Chart

Revenue since first year of export

Australia can grow our green exports revenue to $333b per annum

Beyond Zero Emissions analysis shows that by pursuing an ambitious Go for Gold scenario, Australia can secure a significant share of the global market for growth commodities.

These new green export industries will meet surging demand for zero-carbon products, such as green steel, renewable hydrogen and ammonia, green aluminium and critical minerals that will dominate global economic growth this century.

Chart

Australia can grow our green exports revenue to $333b per annum

Beyond Zero Emissions analysis shows that by pursuing an ambitious Go for Gold scenario, Australia can secure a significant share of the global market for growth commodities.

These new green export industries will meet surging demand for zero-carbon products, such as green steel, renewable hydrogen and ammonia, green aluminium and critical minerals that will dominate global economic growth this century.

Chart

Australia can grow our green exports revenue to $333b per annum

Beyond Zero Emissions analysis shows that by pursuing an ambitious Go for Gold scenario, Australia can secure a significant share of the global market for growth commodities.

These new green export industries will meet surging demand for zero-carbon products, such as green steel, renewable hydrogen and ammonia, green aluminium and critical minerals that will dominate global economic growth this century.

Chart

Fossil fuel exports are projected to decline across key markets

Australia’s export profile is highly exposed to demand collapse as the world rapidly pivots to a zero-emissions future. Current climate targets of Australia's key trading partners will wipe $128 billion a year off of Australia's exports unless we invest in alternatives.

Currently, 39% of Australia’s total commodity exports are fossil fuels. Yet, Australia’s top five export markets (China, Japan, South Korea, US and the EU) have all set net zero targets and are implementing ambitious policy settings that will drive down demand faster.

Chart

Fossil fuel exports are projected to decline across key markets

Australia’s export profile is highly exposed to demand collapse as the world rapidly pivots to a zero-emissions future. Current climate targets of Australia's key trading partners will wipe $128 billion a year off of Australia's exports unless we invest in alternatives.

Currently, 39% of Australia’s total commodity exports are fossil fuels. Yet, Australia’s top five export markets (China, Japan, South Korea, US and the EU) have all set net zero targets and are implementing ambitious policy settings that will drive down demand faster.

Chart

Fossil fuel exports are projected to decline across key markets

Australia’s export profile is highly exposed to demand collapse as the world rapidly pivots to a zero-emissions future. Current climate targets of Australia's key trading partners will wipe $128 billion a year off of Australia's exports unless we invest in alternatives.

Currently, 39% of Australia’s total commodity exports are fossil fuels. Yet, Australia’s top five export markets (China, Japan, South Korea, US and the EU) have all set net zero targets and are implementing ambitious policy settings that will drive down demand faster.

Chart

Slow Starter: growth drastically reduced

If Australia takes a more cautious, slower industrial development strategy across the four classes of zero-emissions goods, growth will be drastically reduced. In the Slow Starter scenario we may still see export revenue from zero-emissions products increase steadily, from $21 billion in 2020 to $33 billion in 2030 and $123 billion by 2050, but growth is effectively a third of the rate of the Go for Gold scenario.

Chart

Slow Starter: growth drastically reduced

If Australia takes a more cautious, slower industrial development strategy across the four classes of zero-emissions goods, growth will be drastically reduced. In the Slow Starter scenario we may still see export revenue from zero-emissions products increase steadily, from $21 billion in 2020 to $33 billion in 2030 and $123 billion by 2050, but growth is effectively a third of the rate of the Go for Gold scenario.

Chart

Slow Starter: growth drastically reduced

If Australia takes a more cautious, slower industrial development strategy across the four classes of zero-emissions goods, growth will be drastically reduced. In the Slow Starter scenario we may still see export revenue from zero-emissions products increase steadily, from $21 billion in 2020 to $33 billion in 2030 and $123 billion by 2050, but growth is effectively a third of the rate of the Go for Gold scenario.

Chart

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"Australia has the minerals to power the renewable energy age throughout the world in the coming years... The opportunity for Australia is extraordinary and now is the time to seize it."

Robyn Denholm

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Tesla chairman

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