Australia’s coal and gas exports are being left stranded

By Stephen Bygrave. The Conversation, 21-11-2014

The 'Fossil Economy in a Changing World' report can be downloaded here

Australia’s official forecasts for expanding fossil fuel exports don’t match up with what’s needed to avoid severe climate change. Jeremy Buckingham/Flickr, CC BY

In the last week the US and China announced goals to reduce emissions by 26-28% and cap emissions by 2030 respectively. India also signalled its aim to end coal imports within 2-3 years.

These are telling signs of a move away from fossil fuels by some of the world’s biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, including countries that are key importers of Australia’s coal and gas.

Land Use report launched in Melbourne

To a packed house, our researchers Andrew Longmire and Dr Chris Taylor explained the findings of the report, which provides a number of ways to bring land use emissions down to zero.

John Pettigrew, former director of SPC Ltd. and current President of the Goulburn Valley Environment Group, gave the keynote address. John had to destroy his 10 000 peach trees due largely to the impacts of climate change.

Land Use Melbourne launch audience

 

 

John pointed out that farmers had adapted to many changes in both technique and technology, and are far more capable of change than they're sometimes considered to be. Change may be met with reluctance, however farmers often came to rely on the new techniques they pioneered - reducing water use is a good example of this.

Land Use Melbourne launch panel

Launch discussion panel L to R: Andrew Longmire, John Pettigrew, Dr Stephen Bygrave, Prof. Craig Pearson, Prof. Kate Auty, Dr Chris Taylor.

 

 

 

 

 

 

A panel of experts including: Professor Craig Pearson (The University of Melbourne), John Pettigrew, Professor Kate Auty (Former Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability Victoria), Andrew Longmire and Dr Chris Taylor took questions from the audience.

Some of the points raised were:

  • Native wet forest is vital for carbon storage & as water catchment - plantations don't provide as much water
  • 5 million tonnes of carbon lost to ocean annually in soil. Australian soil found on Heard Island (Antarctica)
  • Many more opportunities on clean & green agriculture, & we're smart enough to do it
  • Climate deniers on the land a tiny minority
  • Australian farmers can enhance value of products with sustainable agriculture and charge a premium
  • You can listen to a podcast of the event here.

    The Land Use report can be ordered at our online shop, or downloaded free here.

    Sydney launch of Land Use report

    Snap up your tickets to attend the Land Use report launch in Sydney next Wednesday 5 November. You'll hear about the key findings from the researchers, and have a chance to ask a question of the panel - featuring Emeritus Professor Stuart Hill and the report researchers.

    Zero Carbon Australia Land Use: Agriculture and Forestry

    Land Use: Agriculture and Forestry

    A Discussion Paper

    Download the report: click here (pdf, 16.1MB)

    Emissions in the agriculture and forestry sectors in Australia are high and growing. The UNFCCC National Inventory Report suggests that sources of land use emissions, such as land clearing for agriculture and enteric (intestinal) fermentation from digestive processes in livestock, contribute 15% of national emissions. Australia’s land use sector is in a unique position to mitigate (reduce) climate impacts and take a leading role in addressing climate change.

    Agriculture and forestry are the only sectors of the Australian economy that can draw carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere by sequestering it in growing plants and in the soil. The agriculture and forestry sectors can mitigate climate impacts on the land, bringing prosperity to rural areas in the process. The ZCA Land Use report explores how this can be done.




    The ZCA Land Use Report outlines a range of measures that can substantially reduce emissions and provide opportunities for farmers in building resilience to the impacts of climate change. These measures encompass both agriculture and forestry and address emissions at the scale required to prevent catastrophic climate change.

    Agriculture and forestry: hidden emissions, solution in plain sight

    By Stephen Bygrave. RenewEconomy, 23-10-2014

    The Zero Carbon Australia Land Use report can be downloaded here

    Agriculture and forestry activities cover most of Australia, but increasingly, no longer our national consciousness. With most of our population now living in the cities, the remainder of the continent is often forgotten. The vast space between our coastlines is not empty, however. In fact most of it is farmed and managed for a wide variety of commercial purposes.

    Beyond Zero Emissions has been working for several years on a major research project to look at reducing greenhouse emissions from the Land Use sector — agriculture and forestry. The result, released this week, is the Zero Carbon Australia Land Use Report.

    The report shows a surprisingly high emissions profile for the Land Use sector, a sector that will be most impacted by climate change. But well-understood and already widely practiced strategies can move the sector a long distance towards the goal of zero emissions, helping to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.

    The research proceeded from an initial investigation into where emissions in the sector come from, and at what magnitude. It turns out that various activities on the land including farming, forestry, and land-clearing, account for a huge proportion of our national emissions. This is masked in our national accounts, which splits the sector and offsets its emissions against reductions from revegetation of land.

    By including all emissions from farming and land-clearing for agriculture, we derived a figure of 33 per cent of Australia’s annual emissions coming from land use practices.

    The largest contributor was land clearing and re-clearing, followed by enteric fermentation (the production of methane by ruminant animals’ digestive systems, mainly cattle and sheep).

    The report also found that carbon stocks in native forests are systematically underestimated by a factor of up to four or five, so that the climate impact of native forest logging is much higher than previously thought. If the report had been able to include an adequate appraisal of emissions from clearfell logging, total land use emissions would be higher still.

    Native forest logging at Toolangi in Victoria's central highlands. From crdunn.blogspot.com.au

    High-speed rail: Australia could build network for $30 billion less, according to Beyond Zero Emissions

    By James Law. From News.com.au

    IT could be faster than flying, good for the environment and be our next great “nation-building exercise”. But does Australia have the wherewithal to make an idea as big and expensive as high-speed rail a reality?

    Climate change think tank Beyond Zero Emissions will present a report in Brisbane tonight that advocates for Australia to take up this major infrastructure challenge.

    Its research finds that a high-speed rail network on Australia’s east coast could be built for $30 billion less than previous projections and the system would be faster, cheaper and cleaner than air travel.

    A model system … Japan’s famous bullet train with Mt Fuji in the background. Source: news.com.au

    The freedom revolution to kill power bill confusion

    By Stephen Bygrave. From Climate Spectator, July 22 2014.

    With the amount of rhetoric flying around regarding electricity bills and energy in recent years, you’d be hard pressed to find any points of clarity amongst the noise. For the average punter with little knowledge about energy and politics, the public discussion is bewildering, however much their electricity bill may concern them.

    Let's take a selection of assertions that have been made in the “expert” and partisan commentary on the energy market to illustrate some of these points:

    • Everyone acknowledges that we need to use more clean energy, but the Renewable Energy Target is too high.
    • The carbon price is destroying the economy and raising your electricity bill, but repealing it may not lower bills.
    • Power bills went up because your neighbours installed solar, but if you install solar, your power bill will go down.
    • Solar isn't reliable because the sun doesn't shine at night, yet the energy grid can't accommodate all the solar power being generated.
    • Clean coal is ready to roll but nowhere to be seen. Wind turbines, which are now quite visible in a number of locations, are sadly unreliable.
    • Wind turbines may make you sick, yet fires in coalmines are nothing to worry too much over.
    • Gas is low emissions, clean and cheap yet gas bills have started to rise sharply.
    • Fracking is needed for energy security, yet state governments have enacted moratoriums against it.

    However, it's the simple truths that manage to cut through all the noise.

    One simple truth is that renewable energy has led to lower wholesale electricity prices. This occurs due to a well-researched (but little reported) dynamic in energy markets known as the Merit Order Effect (see this video that explains it clearly). Perhaps the reason it hasn't caught on is because there's little or no evidence that lower wholesale prices have been passed on to consumers in the form of lower energy bills. Certainly, there has been little reporting of the effect.

    We have on the other hand seen many (misleading) appeals to a supposed public good, blaming solar homeowners for everyone else's rising electricity prices.

    All this hasn't stemmed the flood of homes embracing solar. There's well over a million households in Australia now generating their own solar electricity.

    Now, as gas bills begin a sharp climb that could emulate the previous rise in electricity bills, those solar panels on your neighbours' house will look even more enticing.

    The race to build Australia's first 24-hour solar power is on

    Climate solutions think-tank Beyond Zero Emissions welcomes news that power company Alinta will pursue a solar-thermal “power tower” to replace its ageing coal power stations at Port Augusta in South Australia.

    Alinta announced today that its preferred option is a 50 megawatt plant that can store enough solar energy (as heat) to run for 15 hours at night.

    Beyond Zero Emissions published a high-level study in 2012 into solar-thermal options for Port Augusta and helped locals launch a campaign to replace the town's coal power stations.

    BZE's CEO Stephen Bygrave said the news is a great win for solar.

    “This new technology that can supply clean solar power at night will revolutionise our energy supply, and as I've said, that it's inevitable it will be built in Australia. Now the race is on to see which state, and which town, will see the first power tower built”, Mr Bygrave said.

    “Port Augusta just pulled ahead in that race. I congratulate the people of Port Augusta and all the groups that have supported this campaign for sticking it out and keeping the solar-thermal with storage option on the table. ”

    Image from Repower Port Augusta.

    “Alinta are to be congratulated for seeing the value in expanding renewables.

    “This progress has been made possible by the existence of the Federal body ARENA [Australian Renewable Energy Agency], which provides funds for these feasibility studies.

    “As the residents of Port Augusta know, it's crucial that we keep such support bodies to make a smooth transition to the power of the future.

    “We hope that ARENA is able to continue funding this vital work, and that the Renewable Energy Target and Clean Energy Finance Corporation can then help fund the construction of Australia's first baseload solar power station.

    “These institutions have been criticised by some recently, but this shows once again that the future lies with renewable energy and we ought to support it.”

    Beyond Zero Emissions’ 2012 study on Port Augusta complements the research organisation’s  series of Zero Carbon Australia plans, published in conjunction with The University of Melbourne, that shows how Australia can move to 100% renewable energy in ten years with the political will to do so.

    Fossil industries skating on thin ice

    Stephen Bygrave, June 2014

    Recent news from the US shows how threadbare the fossil fuel industry is becoming.

    First, the new wave of "unconventional" fossil fuel extraction has had a significant upset, as the previously hyped Californian shale oil field has had its estimated size cut by an incredible 96%, casting doubt on the truth of worldwide unconventional oil and gas reserves, as the creatively named shortlink bit.ly/gasponzischeme suggests (click to read the article in The Guardian).

    We've seen this echoed here in Australia with Deutsche Bank and now HSBC deciding not to fund the Abbott Point coal terminal.

    Investment group Barclays have downgraded the entire US electric utility industry. Why? Here's what they had to say:

    "Over the next few years... we believe that a confluence of declining cost trends in distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation and residential-scale power storage is likely to disrupt the status quo... We believe that solar + storage could reconfigure the organization and regulation of the electric power business over the coming decade."

    Moving slowly on Very Fast Trains

    By Jon Fairall. The Saturday Paper, Jun 7, 2014.

    The case for fast trains has never been stronger, and inaction just drives the cost higher.

    The engineering think tank Beyond Zero Emissions recently released a report on the construction of a high-speed railway. The project’s leader, Gerard Drew, told a meeting in Sydney that on his scheme the Brisbane, Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne corridor would be linked by 2030 with trains running at 350km/h and possibly faster.

    The study proved such a project could be justified. More importantly, perhaps, it demonstrated it could be financially viable. “High speed rail would halve air travel,” says the group’s chief executive officer, Stephen Bygrave. “It’s faster, more convenient and it will make a profit.” 

    On the basis of overseas experience, the study team estimated that, if the line was built by 2030, 65 per cent of people travelling Brisbane–Sydney or Sydney–Melbourne would use the train. Given current projections of the growth of traffic along the corridor, that implies about 68 million passengers a year. 

    Audio: Sydney high speed rail launch

    Beyond Zero Emissions has conducted the second launch of its High Speed Rail report, this time on the evening of 30 April in Sydney. The launch was co-hosted by the Institute of Environmental Studies (IES) at the University of New South Wales. There were over 200 attendees with a packed lecture theatre, and 12 volunteers from the BZE NSW team did a fantastic job running the event.

    You can download an MP3 audio file of the launch here.

    Sydney high-speed rail launch speakers. L to R: Gerard Drew, Research Director BZE; Philipp Bergeron (DLR); Geoff Kettle (Mayor of Goulburn); Nigel Lake (CEO, Pottinger); Bryan Nye (CEO, Australasian Railway Association); Phil Potterton (GHD, former head of BITRE); Stephen Bygrave, CEO, BZE; Professor Graciela Metternicht, Director IES; Emeritus Professor John Black, IES.

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