Our Fossil Economy research shows that reliance on emissions-intensive exports, such as coal, gas and iron ore, could lead to a $100 billion shortfall annually by 2030.
This could cause a systemic economic crisis.
Contrary to the International Energy Agency’s projections, and ignoring the international phase-out of emissions-intensive imports, the government assumes Australian coal exports will increase in both volume and value.
Our Carbon Crisis report shows that Australia has a 50 per cent chance of a systemic economic crisis, caused by ignoring the global shift to clean energy.
Without changing the Australian investment focus towards cleaner energy, the country is on course for “systemic economic decline”; which means high unemployment, high debt, and deep recession.
The government’s position further isolates Australia globally by ignoring international efforts to limit climate change to below 2C of warming.
1. Australia will lose $100 billion annually by 2030 in emissions-intensive export revenue.
The international community, including Australia’s trading partners are moving to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, cutting these imports significantly.
The Australian Government has projected coal, gas and iron ore exports to grow steadily over the coming decades, without taking that into consideration.
2. The International Energy Agency has very different projections to the Australian Government.
The Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) 2014 projections for fossil fuel income are significantly higher than the International Energy Agency’s ‘central’ New Policy Scenario, and wildly different to the climate mitigation ‘450 parts per million’ scenario.
3. Emissions-intense commodities make up 44 per cent of all Australia’s export revenue. Just four countries import 92 per cent of these commodities.
Australia’s export revenue is highly concentrated to China, India, Japan and South Korea. These countries have either recently initiated or announced policies to shift away from fossil fuels, and are actively promoting clean energy and energy efficiency in their countries.
4. The pollution we export along with these commodities will increase from 130 per cent of domestic emissions to 350 per cent by 2050.
If we follow current energy policy, Australia will be responsible for 16 per cent of the global carbon budget by 2050, up from 4 per cent today. We can’t continue to increase fossil fuel production unimpeded in a global economy that is reducing fossil fuel use.
5. Australia will need to stop emissions-intensive exports to ensure a stable and prosperous economy in the future.
Australia is at risk of its economy being left behind as the rest of the world moves to cleaner ways of doing business.