Australia has a 50 % chance of systemic economic crisis, caused by ignoring the global shift to clean energy.
Australia’s industry and exports are emissions-intensive. This intensity is a growing economic liability, as the international community strengthens its efforts to limit climate change.
Without changing the Australian investment focus towards cleaner energy, the country is on course for systemic economic decline; which means high unemployment, high debt, and deep recession.
Projections of Australia’s energy production expect our footprint to grow from 3% to 16% of the global carbon budget by 2050.
Global economic risks cannot be controlled by domestic actions and policies. Carbon related risks can be directly reduced by domestic actions and policies.
Penalties on emissions in excess of Australia’s fair share represents a 50% chance of causing a systemic crisis.
The time delay for investments to convert to real emission reductions requires forward planning. The earlier actions are taken, the lower the risk of crisis.
Author: Gerard Drew
First Edition February 2015
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The Carbon Crisis report draws on commissioned research carried out for BZE by
the “National Institute of Economic and Industry Research” (NIEIR)
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Australia risking “systemic economic crisis” in decarbonising world
(The Australian: 5 May 2015),